Foote Notes: NFL Observations – November 29, 2005

Buffalo Ready To Deliver Bills to “Under” bettors … Bills 1-3(o/u) L4 games and stand a good chance to continue this trend at Miami this week. Buffalo coming off 13-9 home loss to Carolina, easily staying under 37-point posted total, after Bills 30th ranked offense accumulated just 216 total yards. BUF settled for three field goals inside Panthers 20 yard line and have scored touchdowns on just thirty-three percent of their red zone tries this season. Last three games, Bills opponents averaging better than 35 minutes of possession, leaving defense on field entirely too long. But Buffalo defense has played good in three of past four games holding New England to 16 points, Kansas City to 3 points and Carolina to 9. So defense is stepping up while offense continues to sputter with Dolphins 1-4 (o/u) L5 on deck.

New York ATM Giants Against Conference Foes … The G-Men improved to a near perfect 7-1 ATS vs. the NFC after 24-21 road loss to Seattle as 4.5-point dog with another conference foe–Dallas +3–coming up at home. Giants should have won too with a huge 490-355 edge in total yards but three missed field goals cost money line bettors. Tom Coughlin is also an incredible 26-11 ATS as a home favorite of seven points or less going back to his days at Jacksonville, including 5-1 ATS this year!

Vikings Right Ship In Titanic Turnaround … Vikings now riding a 4-0 run both SU and ATS after latest 24-12 road win over Cleveland. We cannot foresee this streak ending this week at Detroit either. Minny turnaround remarkable since team started season 2-5 SU and were the laughingstock of the NFL after boat scandal and Culpepper season ending injury only seemed like the proverbial the icing on the cake to the end of Mike Tice. But Brad Johnson 4-0 since taking over and more importantly Vikings defense hasn’t allowed more than 21 points and forced 3, 5, 2 and 5 turnovers during latest winning streak. On the opposite end of the spectrum are the dying Lions, who are 1-4 both SU and ATS their last five games after embarrassing Thanksgiving loss to Atlanta. By the time you read this, Steve Mariucci might be “mooching” family and friends for a new job.

Falcons Set To Soar … If games really are won in the trenches then Carolina might be in trouble this week with huge home divisional game against Atlanta. Panthers coming off a 13-9 road win at Buffalo where they needed a come from behind TD with just over three minutes remaining in regulation to pull out the victory in Orchard Park. CAR ran the ball 33 times for just 113 yards–a mediocre 3.4 average–against the league’s second worst rushing defense. But the 113 yards was the most they had gained overland since week one against the Saints. Panthers’ 26th ranked ground attack has registered 100 or more rushing yards in just four of eleven games this season. Falcons meanwhile boast the NFL’s top running game (183 YPG) and are 6-2 ATS when they outrush their opponents this year.

By Amber