Technology and Transition
History and unborn trends
The stylish summary of the history of information technologies is a graph that shows the computations per second per$ from 1900 to moment. (1) (2) ( Try googling computations per second per$) What we see when we look at these numbers is exponential growth.
Up take of the printing press took hundreds of times; uptake of the radio and Television took decades; uptake of the computer and mobile phones took times. The crapola and yet astonishing comparison that’s generally dashed out in exchanges like this is that there’s over 100 times further computing power in our smart phone than there was in the Apollo Space Program.
Each time we reach the capacity of one technology, a new bone appears that takes the technology to the coming position. Vacuum tubes were replaced by transistors, which were replaced by chips, which will presumably be replaced by 3-dimensional tone-organizing molecular circuits or maybe indeed quantum computers.
I veritably much like the observation by Ray Kurzweil in his TED talk (3) that this exponential growth is the result of worldwide chaotic geste and when we view it from a distance we see the pattern and the trend.
I also like the observation from the same talk that while we can not prognosticate the geste of a single patch we can prognosticate the geste of feasts. While we can not prognosticate the geste of an individual, we can prognosticate the geste of crowds. This, combined with Philip Rosenthal’s observation (4) that when the internet was being erected no bone knew or had time to suppose what it would come, provides us with a regard into the nature of elaboration. Elaboration is
Chaotic at the micro position
Predictable at the macro position
Out of any one person’s control
Happens through request (for want of a better term) forces
In the 1950’s prognostications about life in the time 2000 primarily revolved around a durability of the transport revolution; flying buses, space trip etc. Infrequently was the revolution in ICT prognosticated. While people like Ray Kurzweil might be suitable to prognosticate the durability of the deflation of price and the increase in the computing power of technologies, it’s doubtful that we can prognosticate the area that will have the most profound effect.
“ We’ll succeed in rear engineering the brain by the 2020’s” Ray Kurzweil. (5) And according to Kurzweil’s numbers, it’ll be available for$!!!
The crucial areas that technology is affecting presently include
Interestingly, from my experience working with a number of companies in the medicinal diligence, the revolution in the chemistry assiduity seems to be passing and being replaced by the biotech assiduity. Pharmaceutical companies’ channels of new medicines are decelerating in comparison to the florescences of the 50’s, 60’s, 70’s, and 80’s.
According to Jeremy Butler (6) there are four crucial stages in the development of information technology. They are
pre-mechanical (3000 BC – 1450 Announcement)
mechanical (1450 – 1840)
electromechanical (1840 – 1940)
electronic (1940 to present)
There’s no mistrustfulness that ICT has handed us with the occasion to be more apprehensive of issues and incidents with an increased breadth and depth. While the volume and speed of information has dramatically increased, the quality of that information and where the public choose to concentrate its attention is still in question.
ICT can also complicate the well proved cerebral preference for evidence bias. (7) Druggies of ICT can search for and find information to support current impulses, incorrect hypotheticals or factually incorrect information. You can indeed join groups to foster your own ignorance.
There’s an increased capability to capture and store information about us. This will always be used for good and bad purposes. Yes some people use it to vend and announce … and maybe that is n’t a bad thing … at least now I only have to sit through advertisements for effects I ’m actually interested in. The debit is the reduction in serendipity of the discovery of commodity new outside of my current interests.
Yes, we lose sequestration and maybe indeed our identity, and what we gain is sharper information about how we act and how to ameliorate our society and terrain to more suit our preferences.
There are an adding number of studies that suggest that ICT is rewiring our smarts. Professor George Patton from the Royal Children’s Hospital’s Centre for Adolescent Health in Melbourne says he sees kiddies who engage in electronic media for the whole day and believes it’s rewiring the brain. (8)
Enterprises around the social goods of ICT include
dropped attention span
a preference for range of information rather than depth
increase in compulsive behaviours similar as‘ liking’ effects on Facebook and constant monitoring of incoming dispatches
Increase in distractibility
Science fabrication or fact
After reading Sam Harris on free will (9), Robert Wright on evolutionary psychology, (10) harkening to Ray Kurzweil (11) and seeing effects like Harvard bioengineers and geneticists storing 700 terabytes of word in 1 gram using the double helix of DNA (12) … And you start to wonder that maybe life is double and maybe we aren’t that far down from being suitable to produce life itself!!!